RegattaCentral

CANCELLED!!!                    CANCELLED!!!              CANCELLED!!!

Due to the impact of the California wildfires on air quality and the forecasted poor weather conditions on August 8th, the 2021 North Tahoe Regatta has been CANCELLED.

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Update August 6, 2021, 6:00AM PDT - THE SMOKE IS HERE (NOT A HOAX)

Just on the off chance anyone thought our reasons for cancelling the regatta were overblown, here is what we woke up to this morning:
 

This is the view from my front window. The lake is across the street, just behind that line of trees. Normally you can see the Mount Tallac on the opposite shore, 25 miles away, from here:

Update August 5, 2021, 3:30PM PDT - LIKELY CANCELLATION, PART 2

The forecast is getting worse, not better. Here is a picture a RowTahoe member took from South Lake Tahoe a couple hours ago:

Yes, that is the smoke plume from the River Fire fifty miles west.

And here is the smoke forecast for overnight tonight:

It's coming, and at this point the only question is whether it might clear out before Sunday morning.

Update August 5, 2021, 12:00PM PDT - LIKELY CANCELLATION

The North Tahoe Regatta "cancel-o-meter" has taken a big swing toward the red zone today. The River Fire continues to grow unabated. Forecasts show smoke entering the Tahoe Basin later today and this evening. Meanwhile, the gusty wind event we are currently experiencing is expected to last through the weekend, yielding hazardous fire conditions and rough water on the lake.

For perspective on how quickly things can change in a wildfire scenario, check out these two pictures take one hour apart in Grass Valley this morning:

We haven't made a final decision yet, and continue to monitor the situation, but please be aware that we are now very likely to cancel.

Update August 5, 2021, 6:00AM PDT - RIVER FIRE THREATENS EVENT

We might need to post multiple updates today. We are actively tracking the River Fire near Colfax, CA, that started yesterday afternoon. Driven by high winds and exceptionally hot and dry conditions (yesterday was a Red Flag Day), the fire exploded in size, reaching over 1,000 acres in just a few hours. As of around 7:30pm last night, it had reached 1,400 acres, was completely uncontained, and had triggered large-scale mandatory evacuations. A large squadron of firefighting airplanes and helicopters was in the area overnight, but we haven't had an official update in several hours, and the private citizen reports coming are looking very, very bad.

Why does it matter? It would be hard to imagine a worse place and time for this to occur, other than a fire in the Tahoe Basin itself. Colfax is very close to Tahoe - less than 50 miles from Donner Pass, making it the closest large wildfire that has occurred this season. Beckwouth, Dixie, and Tamarack were all further away and outside of the prevailing wind corridor, yet all three dumped significant smoke into the area. River could be much worse, given its proximity and the fact that it is exactly due west of the lake, right where the winds from the Pacific can blow its smoke and ash directly toward us. 

This fire is occurring right along I-80, the main corridor via which the majority of our competitors and volunteers will reach Tahoe this weekend. Closure of 80 would require a detour down around the south shore of the lake via Highway 50, adding considerable length to the journey. 80 is a multi-lane interstate; 50 is a one-lane "highway" for much of its length. If 80 closes, which I strongly suspect it will, we'll probably lose significant participation even if we do end up moving forward and racing.

It's not all doom and gloom. Conditions at the race venue are nothing short of *perfect* in every regard right now. If right now were 72 hours from now, we'd be full steam ahead.

Stay tuned, I'll post more here as we get more news. In the meantime, send hopeful thoughts and prayers to our friends in Placer County and Nevada County (which, inexplicably, is in California).

Update August 4, 2021, 6:45AM PDT - ODDS ARE IMPROVING

It is a beautiful, warm morning here in North Lake Tahoe. The sun is out, the birds are chirping, the wind is almost nonexistent, and the water is very, very flat. Best of all, the air quality is just about as good as it can get: single- and low double-digit AQI counts all the way around the lake. If this holds out for four more days, we should have a great morning on the 8th!

I currently put the odds of the event taking place at about 75%, a significant improvement since my last update. However, as we've seen before, things can change quickly, and there is one area of concern. Shifting winds have started to push smoke from the Dixie Fire down into the Central Valley.

Sacramento still looks good, but the smoke is getting close. The issue is that the prevailing westerly winds would then drive that smoke right at Lake Tahoe, which is exactly what happened the last time we saw a pattern like this develop. The further south into the Central Valley it penetrates, the worse off we'll be.

We'll keep watching it, but for now, we're feeling good about things. We can't want to see you on Saturday evening for the race briefing and a beer, and Sunday morning for the regatta!

Update August 2, 2021, 7:00AM PDT - DON'T COUNT CHICKENS

As I was going to bed last night, I was thinking about this morning's update. I was planning to write that, "...after several straight days of clean air and low (enough) AQI counts, we are getting much more optimistic about the likelihood we'll be able to race on Sunday."

How quickly things change.

In the middle of the night, I woke up feeling like I had to sneeze - not the "I'm sick" kind of sneeze, but the "My allergies are acting up" kind of sneeze. The thing is, this is not a bad time of year for allergies here. There is only one other possible explanation: smoke.

Sure enough, the smoke rolled in overnight. Here are current conditions:

Reno and Carson were pretty bad yesterday, but everything to the west is clean. As you can see, the smoke is pouring into the Basin from the northeast and gradually creeping around the shoreline. Incline Village, where I live, got hit first, and now Kings Beach, where the regatta will be held, is starting to choke.

The image illustrates how difficult the decision could be on race day as well. Would you "go" or "cancel" in this scenario? Our general rule is any readings over 150 in the vicinity of the race course means "cancel," but check out how clean things are in Carnelian Bay, just a mile or so fro, the start!

At this point, we're holding to the "50/50" prediction. The good news is that the winds for the rest of the week are expected to be primarily from the West, so hopefully the smoke blows out in a day or two and we're back to race-able conditions.

Update July 31, 2021, 3:30PM PDT - STILL UP IN THE AIR (LITERALLY)

Air quality has been up and down for the past two days. We've mostly been in the Yellow (50+) and Orange (100+) zones, with occasional peaks in the Red (150+) and dips in the Green (<50) zones. Currently we're in the 50s (yellow), but this morning it was red in Kings Beach.

That is somewhat to be expected. Unfortunately, AQI tends to get worse with lower temperatures here, as the smoke sinks below colder, denser air. Nighttime temps get down below 60F, and even into the 40s on some nights. That's part of why one of the go/no-go decision points is at 5pm the night before the race - if the air is bad then, it will almost definitely be bad the next morning.

Still, we remain cautiously optimistic, and continue preparations for the regatta. If you know anyone (spouses, SOs, friends who don't row???) who would like to volunteer at event, have them contact us. We could use a few more helpers on the day of the race.

The official rules, including starting instructions, have been posted over on the Rules & Eligibility page.

And here is the preliminary agenda for the weekend:

        Saturday, August 7th
        6:00pm PDT: Pre-Race gathering and detailed briefing at the Tahoe Yacht Club in Tahoe City. This is NOT mandatory, but we strongly encourage you to attend, as this will contain a lot more information (with time for Q&A) than the briefing the morning of the regatta. There will be cash bar available during the briefing to assist you with any refrehshment needs. NOTE: YOU MUST ATTEND ONE OF THE TWO BRIEFINGS IN ORDER TO RACE.

        Sunday, August 8th
        6:00am PDT: Registration/Check-in on the beach at the Crown Motel in Kings Beach
        7:00am PDT: Race Briefing - MANDATORY IF YOU DO NOT ATTEND THE SATURDAY EVENING BRIEFING.
        7:15am - 8:00am PDT: Boat safety checks and launches
        8:00am PDT: First race begins
        11:00am PDT: Race cutoff - any boats still on course will be instructed to return to shore. (NOTE: We expect all boats to complete the race by 10:00am or so, but we'll make a sweep around 10:30 to start herding any stragglers back home.)
        11:30am PDT: Awards

Pray for westerly winds.

Update July 29, 2021, 12:30PM PDT - 10 DAYS TO GO!

We're 50/50 at this point. Air quality has declined steadily over the past 24 hours, but as of right now we're still (barely) good enough to host the regatta. The PM2.5 numbers have been hovering between 100 and 150, with occasional spikes to 160-170.

As we've seen over the past week, conditions can change rapidly with the shifting winds. Here is a snapshot of current conditions and a look at what we're up against:

The "D" in the image above is the Dixie Fire. It's only 25% contained and contines to grow by several thousand acres per day. The "T" is the Tamarack fire. It is about 60% contained and not growing as fast; the USFS announced yesterday that they expect full containment by August 31st. However, "contained" is not the same thing as "extinguished," and both fires continue to produce enormous amounts of smoke.

Much of that smoke poured into the Central Valley on Tuesday night and Wednesday, choking Sacramento. That smoke is now being pushed east over the Sierra and into the Tahoe Basin. Because of the height of the mountain passes on that side, it isn't quite as bad as what we experienced last weekend, when the smoke was entering the Basin from the east.

This could go either way. I'm hopeful that we'll be able to proceed with the regatta, but realistic that the prospects don't look great. If we see significant deterioration in air quality by early next week, we'll most likely make the decision early to call the event. 

Update July 28, 2021, 8:30AM PDT - BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS TODAY

I spent some time on the water this morning; what a perfect day for rowing! This photo was taken at 7:20am looking out toward Stateline Point from Burnt Cedar Beach in Incline Village, just a few miles from the race course:

As you can see, the air was clear and the water was flat. Expect similar water conditions on race day; as for the air, well, that could be a very different story.

The AQI crept up into the yellow zone over the past couple hours. It's still well below the threshold for the regatta, but the trend is concerning. Even more concerning is the projected wind direction over the next ten days:

What we want is wind from the west or southwest to blow the smoke away from us. What we don't want is wind from the north, south, or east. Anything from the north (especially the northwest) is going to blow Dixie Fire smoke our way. Anything fron the south is going to blow Tamarack Fire our way. And anything from the east is going to blow all of the smoke from both fires that has settled in the Truckee River Valley and Carson Valley our way. As you can see from the forecast above, there are several times over the next ten days in which the winds will not be favorable. We need a solid 24 hours or so of westerlies to clear the air, so we're still very tentative.

Fingers crossed! Keep practicing.

Update July 27, 2021, 2:00PM PDT - A GLIMMER OF HOPE

Last night strong thunderstorms dumped a significant amount of rain in the area, and the wind shifted to westerly, bringing a huge improvement in air quality. The numbers today are all in the "green" zone!

Meanwhile the crews fighting the Tamarack Fire to the south made major strides in containing the blaze. Unfortunately, the larger Dixie Fire up north that was responsible for all of the smoke we endured over the weekend continues to rage, with less than 25% containment. We aren't out of the woods (pardon the expression) yet.

Stay tuned, this will most likely be a game time decision!

Update July 26, 2021, 7:30AM PDT

While progress has been made in containing the Dixie and Tamarack fires, both are still mostly uncontrolled and growing. We were hoping the wind would shift to more westerly yesterday, but that didn't materialize and it continues to blow from the northwest, bringing smoke from the Dixie fire into the Tahoe Basin. Air quality has not improved and remains in the "red" zone.

We did have a strong rainstorm in North Tahoe last night, though it brought lightning that sparked another small fire on Mount Rose. That fire is contained, but it illustrates that "praying for rain" often isn't helpful. Rain brings lightning, and lightning starts fires.

We'll keep you posted.

Update July 24, 2021, 9:30AM PDT

Well, just like that everything got worse. Significant amounts of wildfire smoke moved into the Tahoe Basin yesterday, and both air quality and visibility have deteriorated dramatically. If the regatta were scheduled for today, we would have to cancel. Fortunately, we have two weeks to go, so there is plenty of time for things to improve. Here are the latest conditions:

Keep watching this page for updates.

 

Update July 22, 2021, 4:55PM PDT

We are just over two weeks away from the 2021 North Tahoe Regatta! As of today, we are still GO for the event, but please be aware that the two large wildfires to the north (Dixie Fire) and south (Tamarack Fire) of Lake Tahoe have been causing some air quality issues. Depending on how the winds shift, this could become a factor. Here at the north end of the lake the air quality was too poor for rowing on Sunday and early Monday, but the smoke has cleared out since then and we're currently in the safe zone. Keep an eye on PurpleAir - if the US EPA PM2.5 AQI reading is above 150 in Kings Beach at 5pm August 6th, 5pm August 7th, 7am on August 8th, we will call the event. The first two times are to give some warning to competitors and volunteers not to show up, and the last is the "game time" decision point.

We have had a very hot, dry summer so far. Last week's heat wave has subsided, but temps are still 5-15 degrees above average for this time of year. That said, the mornings have been cool and very pleasant for rowing. I spent an hour on the lake from 6:30am - 7:30am today with temps in the 50s earlier and low 60s later. If current conditions hold, plan for around 70 degrees at race time.

The heat and drought also mean that water levels are quite low, approaching Lake Tahoe's natural rim. Don't worry, this doesn't affect the regatta itself - there'll still be about a thousand or so feet of water underneath you, but it does mean that launchig from the beaches will be a bit more difficult. Expect to have to carry your boat out as much as 100-200 feet before you get deep enough water to launch. We've held the event with similar conditions before, just be ready for a bit of a sandy slog. These pictures taken today at the Crown Motel beach should give you an idea:

On the bright side, there has been almost ZERO WIND in the mornings, leading to ultra-flat, beautiful rowing conditions. Hopefully this holds up until 8/8 and the smoke stays away!

Finally, a bunch of new info has been added to the Venue and FAQ pages, including info and maps for boat loading/unloading, parking, etc. Please take a few minutes to review it.

- Wyatt A. Nordstrom, Regatta Director